Oscars 2022: Did AI or movie experts get more winners right?

Regular movie fans and AI do battle with Variety magazine

Deborah Yao

March 28, 2022

2 Min Read

Regular movie fans and AI do battle with Variety magazine

Every year for the last six years, Unanimous AI has been more accurate than movie critics at predicting Oscar winners. It uses swarm intelligence -- the power of interactive group decisions enhanced by AI -- to transform regular people into expert decision-makers.

How did it do this year? Here’s the list of its predictions using Swarm AI.

Figure 1:

Unanimous AI took a group of regular movie fans and created a ‘hive mind’ in which their combined choices are smarter than those of any individual member. “We can take a group of people and turn them into a super organism,” founder Louis Rosenberg told AI Business. “They become an artificial expert.”

Each participant is presented with a question and multiple choice answer in a hexagon format. They use a computer mouse or touchpad to move the circle to their choice. As people see others’ choices, they might give up on their pick. Swarm AI’s algorithm gauges this reaction to determine who has more conviction and get to the group mind’s optimal answer.

Figure 2:

In the match up, movie fans and AI chose winners in 16 categories. These answers were compared with the predictions of Variety magazine, the storied trade publication for the entertainment industry. Variety predicted winners for all 23 Oscar categories.

So who won the matchup? The Oscar goes to … AI and regular movie fans, but not by much.

Swarm AI got 13 out of 16 categories right, with the incorrect answers being best picture, best original screenplay and best adapted screenplay. That gives it a score of 81% accuracy.

Variety got 18 out of 23 right, with wrong answers in best original song, best international feature, best animated short, best documentary short and best live action short. That is a 78% accuracy score.

But when looking at just the 16 categories for both AI and Variety, they were tied.

About the Authors

Deborah Yao

Editor, AI Business

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